Kalshi derived signals

Three x402 endpoints for US-regulated prediction-market intelligence. Kalshi’s REST API is fully public — but the value here is in the derivation: slopes, cross-source JOINs, and momentum-vs-market signals an agent would otherwise have to compute itself.

What you get

Endpoint	Cost	Returns
`POST /kalshi/consensus-trend`	$0.05	Slope-per-hour over 24h + 3d, acceleration signal, volatility band, days-to-resolve — derived from Kalshi’s unique `forecast_history`
`POST /kalshi-polymarket/spread`	$0.05	Cross-source spread between Kalshi and Polymarket on the same topic, with arbitrage direction. JOIN that single-source passthrough APIs structurally can’t return
`POST /kalshi/sports-live-edge`	$0.05	Play-by-play momentum vs market candle reaction → latency-arb signal for live Football / Basketball / Soccer / Hockey / Baseball / WNBA markets

Per-call payment in USDC on Base via x402. No subscription, no API key, no free tier.

Why derived over raw

Kalshi exposes ~50 public no-auth endpoints across 10,821 series (Entertainment 2,445 · Sports 2,172 · Politics 1,986 · Elections 1,404 · Economics 563 · Financials 516 · …). An agent can read them directly — but every consuming agent then re-implements the same math:

Fit a slope through forecast_history points to detect regime change
Match Kalshi events against Polymarket equivalents by keyword + price proximity
Compute momentum from play-by-play events and compare to market reaction lag

Graph Advocate does it once, exposes the answer. The cross-source /spread endpoint in particular is the defensible play: passthrough APIs return one source at a time and can’t JOIN — so the cross-venue arbitrage signal stays valuable even as more upstream sources come online.

Sample: consensus trend for an event

curl -X POST 'https://graphadvocate.com/kalshi/consensus-trend' \
  -H 'Content-Type: application/json' \
  -d '{"event": "KXELONMARS-99"}'

Response (truncated):

{
  "kalshi_event_ticker": "KXELONMARS-99",
  "event_title": "Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?",
  "category": "World",
  "consensus_probability_now": 0.18,
  "slope_per_hour_24h": -0.0004,
  "slope_per_hour_3d": -0.0001,
  "acceleration_signal": -0.0003,
  "interpretation": "accelerating-down",
  "volatility_24h_stdev": 0.012,
  "days_to_resolve": 3287.4,
  "markets_in_event": 1,
  "history_points_analyzed": 142,
  "kalshi_source": "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events/KXELONMARS-99/forecast_history",
  "agent_note": "Forecast history is Kalshi's published consensus probability over time. Use slope+acceleration to detect regime changes before they're priced in. Pair with /kalshi-polymarket/spread for cross-source arbitrage."
}

How to use it. A positive acceleration_signal means the slope is steepening upward — the market is converging on YES faster than it was 3 days ago. Negative means the opposite. interpretation collapses the signal into one of accelerating-up, accelerating-down, stable, or insufficient-history so an agent can branch without parsing.

Sample: cross-source spread

curl -X POST 'https://graphadvocate.com/kalshi-polymarket/spread' \
  -H 'Content-Type: application/json' \
  -d '{"topic": "fed rate", "limit": 5}'

Response:

{
  "topic_keyword": "fed rate",
  "kalshi_candidates": 3,
  "polymarket_candidates": 2,
  "pairs": [
    {
      "kalshi_ticker": "KXFED-25DEC-CUT25",
      "kalshi_yes_mid": 0.62,
      "polymarket_market_slug": "fed-rate-cut-december",
      "polymarket_yes_mid": 0.58,
      "spread_yes_kalshi_minus_poly": 0.04,
      "spread_bps": 400,
      "arbitrage_direction": "long-poly-short-kalshi"
    }
  ],
  "agent_note": "Spread > 200bps in either direction is a candidate arbitrage; verify the two markets actually resolve on the same condition before sizing. Cross-source data single-source APIs can't return in one call.",
  "sources": {
    "kalshi": "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2",
    "polymarket": "token-api proxy"
  }
}

Important: the pairing uses keyword overlap + price-proximity scoring. You must verify the two markets actually resolve on the same on-chain condition before sizing — otherwise the “arbitrage” is just basis risk.

Sample: live sports edge

curl -X POST 'https://graphadvocate.com/kalshi/sports-live-edge' \
  -H 'Content-Type: application/json' \
  -d '{
    "milestone": "<kalshi-sports-milestone-id>",
    "market": "<optional-kalshi-market-ticker>"
  }'

The milestone is Kalshi’s identifier for a specific live game; market is an optional ticker for the market whose candlesticks you want compared against the play-by-play. Response includes momentum_score_last_5_events, market_reaction_pct_last_hour, and a latency_arbitrage_signal of one of upside-lag-likely, downside-lag-likely, market-tracking-stats, or null (insufficient data). How to use it. When momentum_score is strongly one-way (≥0.6 or ≤0.2) but market_reaction_pct is near zero, the market hasn’t fully priced the play-by-play yet — latency-arb window. Verify orderbook depth before sizing — low liquidity will eat the edge.

How it differs from `/polymarket/` and `/hyperliquid/`

These three Kalshi endpoints are derived signals on top of a fully public upstream — different model than the polymarket/hyperliquid trader-intelligence endpoints which proxy through gated data sources. Kalshi’s API is free for anyone to read; Graph Advocate’s value here is in the math:

/polymarket/risk — wallet-type detection (binary signal from on-chain probe)
/hyperliquid/risk — liquidation rate + funding burn (derived from per-trade ledger)
/kalshi/consensus-trend — slope of Kalshi’s unique forecast percentile history
/kalshi-polymarket/spread — JOIN that no single-source API can return
/kalshi/sports-live-edge — momentum-vs-market reaction lag

If you want to inspect the routing for free, send a plain-English question to POST / (A2A JSON-RPC) and Graph Advocate will name the right kalshi/* endpoint and hand back the exact paid curl — without charging.

Source

kalshi.py — the three derivation functions and how they fetch from Kalshi’s public REST and Polymarket data sources.

Getting started

Routing

Trader intelligence

x402 analytics

Discovery

Payments

What you get

Why derived over raw

Sample: consensus trend for an event

Sample: cross-source spread

Sample: live sports edge

How it differs from `/polymarket/` and `/hyperliquid/`

Source

​What you get

​Why derived over raw

​Sample: consensus trend for an event

​Sample: cross-source spread

​Sample: live sports edge

​How it differs from /polymarket/* and /hyperliquid/*

​Source

What you get

Why derived over raw

Sample: consensus trend for an event

Sample: cross-source spread

Sample: live sports edge

How it differs from `/polymarket/` and `/hyperliquid/`

Source